# Estimating Race Pace

**URL:** <https://forum.athletica.ai/t/estimating-race-pace/1804>\
**Category:** FAQs\
**Created:** [June 21, 2024, 10:58am UTC](https://forum.athletica.ai/t/estimating-race-pace/1804 "2024-06-21T10:58:26Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 4\
**Page:** 1

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**Author:** ![Graim](https://forum.athletica.ai/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/g/41988e/32.png) [@Graim](https://forum.athletica.ai/u/Graim)\
**Post date:** [June 21, 2024, 10:58am UTC](https://forum.athletica.ai/t/estimating-race-pace/1804/1 "2024-06-21T10:58:26Z")

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Hi

I am currently scheduled for a marathon in mid-October, and training is progressing well. I have a personal goal of a sub-2.50 (my last marathon was 2.58 in October 2023).

I am aware that Athletica optimizes my training such that I will be in the best possible shape, but how do I translate that into a realistic race pace? I would be more than happy to chase 2.45 if i was confident my training had equipped me for that, and vice versa it would also be good to know if 2.50 is a stretch so i don’t hit the wall.

So long story short. How do i estimate the most realistic race pace?

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**Author:** ![03.grand\_cool](https://forum.athletica.ai/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/0/46a35a/32.png) [@03.grand\_cool](https://forum.athletica.ai/u/03.grand_cool)\
**Post date:** [March 6, 2025, 6:33pm UTC](https://forum.athletica.ai/t/estimating-race-pace/1804/2 "2025-03-06T18:33:39Z")

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Searching the forum for a similar answer 😀

@Marjaana @Prof any guidance?

For instance, my pace profile for running below. Do I target VT1? CS?

Thanks!

 ![IMG_4066](https://forum.athletica.ai/uploads/default/original/2X/c/c85498dab996f957ebb07bc6cf8f1fa64cc33935.jpeg)

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**Author:** ![Prof](https://forum.athletica.ai/user_avatar/forum.athletica.ai/prof/32/28_2.png) [@Prof](https://forum.athletica.ai/u/Prof)\
**Post date:** [March 7, 2025, 12:36am UTC](https://forum.athletica.ai/t/estimating-race-pace/1804/3 "2025-03-07T00:36:48Z")

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Marathon pace is generally 90-95% of CS. The more well trained and experienced you are the closer to the 95% of that value you might hold.

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**Author:** ![03.grand\_cool](https://forum.athletica.ai/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/0/46a35a/32.png) [@03.grand\_cool](https://forum.athletica.ai/u/03.grand_cool)\
**Post date:** [March 7, 2025, 3:20am UTC](https://forum.athletica.ai/t/estimating-race-pace/1804/4 "2025-03-07T03:20:03Z")

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Thank you! Exactly what I was looking for!