Great answer there @Prof !
The fitness numbers are not magical. I’ve been at a higher level of “fitness CTL” and not performed, and at lower level of CTL and performed better than at a higher level of CTL. Both in terms of me vs. me, but also me vs. others. It’s not always the athlete with the highest theoretical “fitness” that wins the race.
Would it not be awesome to do some great “Fitness” building workouts and see your “Fitness” grow AND hit best performances on race day?! If the theoretical models just worked linearly like that, then we would all be World Champions, right? We could crush those HIIT workouts day in and day out and watch ourselves turn into super humans : )
Thankfully we are all humans, and much more complicated than that 
Ok, now I’ll give a practical advice:
- Think of your goal race, and its demands. If you are doing a 100 mile gravel race or an Ironman, you know what you need to be able to do. You kind of have an idea what your speed needs to be to cross the finish line, aligned with your goal.
- Thinking back on the event demand, take a look at where Athletica is taking your long bikes, runs, swims etc. If you feel like Athletica is not building long enough rides *just an example, then add some time to some of those bike rides towards the end of the build before taper/peaking. You want to feel comfortable and confident that you have done the training required for desired performance.
- You don’t have to have done the full Ironman in training to be able to absolutely nail it! When it comes to marathons, I would remind you that running takes a lot more out of your body than biking. Every time you do a really long run, you risk injury or illness. unless you are a very experienced runner, I would not push past 32K.
- A very cool thing about Athletica is the invisible threshold detection and Power/Pace charts that can be very helpful in determining your race pace strategy. How? Look at what you have done in training - form your pacing strategy and be ready to ditch on race day based on your feel!
This is a long way to say - trust the process. Adapt and pivot as needed. Learn from your mistakes and come back stronger. Life is a game, let’s have some fun!