Hey @SBR123 enjoy the final month of prep!
Thanks for your request, I think that’s an excellent idea, and will put this on our Listener Questions!
Here’s how I tackle prepping for IM pacing.
IF I am confident that my Bike Power and Run Profiles are up-to-date (Check what your AI Coach says), I will take a look at what power / pace I did my longest rides and runs.
Here’s mine:
Cycling profile. Look at your longest ride and average watts. Then evaluate: was this ride intensity sustainable for you? Was it done indoors/outdoors? How was your fueling? Ideally, you want to have practiced as close to race day conditions as possible, but sometimes it’s not possible. For example, I did all my rides in prep for IM WC in Nice last year inside because of where I live. I had to develop internal “feel” to know what intensity I can execute. Something that I learned from Gordo Byrn is to question myself several times during the ride: “Is this intensity something I can keep at the end of the ride?” “If I keep this intensity, will I have enough left for marathon?” “Can I keep this pace all day long?”
KEY POINT: Look at what you’ve done so far and estimate your race day pace out of that, not from the threshold numbers.
Running:
Same steps. Have a look at your Run Pace Profile and your longest runs. If your profile is up to date, and you’ve been doing your Sunday long runs (on slightly fatigued legs after Saturday’s brick sessions), your long run pace should be close to realistic of what you can execute on race day after WELL PACED Swim and Bike.
My VT1 predicted 5:56 min/km pace for 4hr marathon, I finished with 5:58 min/km (NGP) after a very hard bike in Nice, with a decent kick to finish with 1.6% aerobic decoupling and average HR 133 (Zone 2).
If you bike beyond what you’ve done in training, you’ll end up paying for it on the run. Knowing myself and what I had done in the training (stuck on a trainer, doing a lot of Strength Endurance work since I didn’t have any real hills), I used Live Workout Reserve to pace myself conservatively the very first 60K in Nice which was most of the climbing. A lot of people passed me on the climb, but I told myself to stay in my own race and I am very happy with the run, being able to run pretty solid, evenly paced run.
Key points:
look what you’ve done on training, evaluate your feel and check for similarities for your race topography etc.
Check what your Zone 2/3a targets are. Do they match with your executed rides/runs? Did you practice race day fueling during those key sessions?
For race day pacing plan: you should not deviate much from what you’ve done in training. Yes, maybe you’ve not completed the entire Ironman in practice, but you should have a pretty clear picture of your training pacing. Don’t expect to do much faster than you’ve done in practice. Race day is a long day.
Please let me know your thoughts and feel free to share screenshots of your key workouts &power/pace charts and we can craft your race plan together.
MJ