Estimating Race Pace


I am currently scheduled for a marathon in mid-October, and training is progressing well. I have a personal goal of a sub-2.50 (my last marathon was 2.58 in October 2023).

I am aware that Athletica optimizes my training such that I will be in the best possible shape, but how do I translate that into a realistic race pace? I would be more than happy to chase 2.45 if i was confident my training had equipped me for that, and vice versa it would also be good to know if 2.50 is a stretch so i don’t hit the wall.

So long story short. How do i estimate the most realistic race pace?

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