Estimating Race Pace

[Graim]

Hi

I am currently scheduled for a marathon in mid-October, and training is progressing well. I have a personal goal of a sub-2.50 (my last marathon was 2.58 in October 2023).

I am aware that Athletica optimizes my training such that I will be in the best possible shape, but how do I translate that into a realistic race pace? I would be more than happy to chase 2.45 if i was confident my training had equipped me for that, and vice versa it would also be good to know if 2.50 is a stretch so i don’t hit the wall.

So long story short. How do i estimate the most realistic race pace?

[03.grand_cool]

Searching the forum for a similar answer

@Marjaana @Prof any guidance?

For instance, my pace profile for running below. Do I target VT1? CS?

Thanks!

[Prof]

Marathon pace is generally 90-95% of CS. The more well trained and experienced you are the closer to the 95% of that value you might hold.

[03.grand_cool]

Thank you! Exactly what I was looking for!